Antarctic Sea Ice Projections Constrained by Historical Ice Cover and Future Global Temperature Change

There is low confidence in projections of Antarctic sea ice area (SIA), due to deficiencies climate model processes. Ensemble regression techniques can help reduce this uncertainty. We investigate relationships between SIA climatology and 21st century change the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble. In summer, under a strong forcing scenario, each loses majority its ice. Therefore, models with greater historical exhibit reductions, so observed strongly constrains projections. spread summer smaller than CMIP 5 (CMIP5), CMIP6 gives more robust constraint on future SIA. winter, by 2100 40% disappears average, ensemble mean explains approximately half projected change. A winter loss CMIP5 explained higher sensitivities some models.